clear;
clc;
tic

year=2;
%模擬的年限

%對含儲能和風電的電力系統進行了可靠性評估，利用序貫蒙特卡洛法，把風儲系統接入IEEE-RBTS系統來仿真，探討了風電場、儲能系統、儲能容量和儲能最大充放電功率對系統可靠性的具體影響。
%（The?reliability?of?the?power?system?with?energy?storage?and?wind?power?is?uated.?The?wind?storage?system?is?connected?to?the?IEEE-RBTS?system?by?using?the?sequential?Monte?Carlo?method.?The?wind?farm?energy?storage?system?storage?capacity?and?storage?capacity?are?discussed.?The?maximum?impact?of?the?maximum?charge?and?discharge?power?on?the?system?reliability.）?

for?l=1:year;
????
????%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%??第一步：數據導入與預處理??%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
????
????SW0=load（‘windspeed.txt‘）;????%載入原始風速數據
????SW0=SW0‘;?????????????????????%將風速數據從橫列轉置成豎列
????SW0=SW0/10*36;????????????????%原始數據的風速單位為m/s，這里轉化為km/h
????N=size（SW02）;????????????????%把SW0的列數賦值給N
????mu=mean（SW0）;?????????????????%求SW0的平均值
????sigma=var（SW0）;
????sigma=sigma^0.5;??????????????%求SW0的標準差
????y=（SW0-mu）./sigma;????????????%數據預處理
????
????N1=8736;??????????????????????%N1為模擬的小時數
????WTGnum=25;????????????????????%WTGnum為風力發電機數量
????
????%%%%%%%%%%%%%%??第二步：根據AIC準則確定ARMA模型的階數??%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
????
????for?n=2:7;
????????m=armax（y‘[nn-1]）;
????????fai=-m.a;
????????theta=m.c;????????????????%把armax函數得到的參數，取出來
????????
????????for?i=1:n;
????????????y1（i）=y（i）;
????????end
????????
????????Noise=m.NoiseVariance^0.5;
????????e=normrnd（0Noise1N）;
????????for?t=n+1:1:N;
????????????y1（t）=0;
????????????for?j=2:n+1;
????????????????y1（t）=y1（t）+fai（j）*y1（t-（j-1））;
????????????end
????????????for?k=1:n;
????????????????y1（t）=y1（t）+theta（k）*e（t-（k-1））;
????????????end
????????end??????????????????????????%y1（t）為預測值
????????
????????s（n）=0;
????????for?i1=1:N;
????????????residual=y1（i1）-y（i1）;
????????????s（n）=s（n）+residual^2;????%求取殘差平方和
????????end
????????
????????AIC（n）=N*log（s（n））+2*n-1;????%求AIC
????end
????
????arma=AIC（12:7）;?????????????????%n=2-7時，各AIC的值
????[AICn1]=min（arma）;
????n1=n1+1;?????????????????????????%n1為得到的ARMA模型的階數
????
????%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%??第三步：用ARMA模型預測風速并確定風速分布??%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
????
????m=armax（y‘[n1n1-1]）;
????fai=-m.a;
????theta=m.c;
????
????for?i=1:n1;
????????y2（i）=y（i）;
????end
????
????Noise=m.NoiseVariance^0.5;
????e=normrnd（0Noise18736）;
????for?t=n1+1:1:8736;
????????y2（t）=0;
????????for?j=2:n1+1;
????????????y2（t）=y2（t）+fai（j）*y2（t-（j-1））;
????????end
????????for?k=1:n1;
????????????y2（t）=y2（t）+theta（k）*e（t-（k-1））;
????????end
????end?????????????????%y1（t）為預測值
????y2;
????SW=y2.*sigma+mu;
????
????????figure（2）
????????subplot（121）;
????????hist（SW0100）;
????????xlabel（‘風速‘）;ylabel（‘頻數‘）;title（‘原始風速的分布‘）;
????????subplot（122）;
????????hist（SW100）;
????????xlabel（‘風速‘）;ylabel（‘頻數‘）;title（‘預測風速的分布‘）;
????
????
????%得到8736個小時的預測風速：SW?1*8736
????
????
????
????%%%%%%%??第四步：風電場的轉移過程，確定其一年中三種狀態分別存在的時長%%%%%%%
???
????%風電機組的三狀態模型
????lambdaRD=5.84;lambdaRF=7.96;lambdaDR=48.3;lambdaFR=58.4;lambdaDF=0;lambdaFD=0;????%

?屬性????????????大小?????日期????時間???名稱
-----------?---------??----------?-----??----

?????文件??????69317??2013-01-19?19:43??Reliability--of-Wind-Farm-bess-\load.txt

?????文件??????11679??2019-07-16?10:47??Reliability--of-Wind-Farm-bess-\wind.m

?????文件????????251??2017-04-09?20:59??Reliability--of-Wind-Farm-bess-\windspeed.txt

?????文件????3471121??2019-07-16?10:28??Reliability--of-Wind-Farm-bess-\基于改進風速預測模型的風電并網可靠性分析_王璽.caj

?????文件?????702205??2019-07-16?10:39??Reliability--of-Wind-Farm-bess-\計及電池儲能設備運行特性的風電場可靠性評估_孟虹年.caj

?????文件????1854544??2019-07-16?10:35??Reliability--of-Wind-Farm-bess-\計及風電場的大電網可靠性模型算法研究_劉威.caj

?????目錄??????????0??2019-07-16?10:39??Reliability--of-Wind-Farm-bess-

-----------?---------??----------?-----??----

??????????????6109117????????????????????7